The decision
The Bank of Japan is expected to leave its policy rate unchanged at 1.25% when the board meets on 29–30 October, according to reporting by Nikkei Asia. The assessment comes as underlying inflation is viewed as having reached the central bank's 2% target.
Holding steady would not necessarily signal the end of tightening. Instead, it would give officials more time to judge whether price growth has become durable enough to support another increase.
What to watch
The language around wages, services prices and financial conditions matters as much as the rate itself. Markets will be looking for clues about the pace of any future move and whether a stronger inflation outlook creates pressure to act sooner.
For households and companies, the key question is whether borrowing costs stay elevated long enough to affect spending, investment and hiring. That transmission takes time, even when the policy signal is immediate.
What to watch
The next signals
- Policy-board guidance on inflation durability.
- Whether wage growth is strong enough to justify another increase.
- The yen and government-bond reaction after the meeting.
Source notes
Reporting consulted
This Northline briefing is an original summary and contextual analysis. Read the underlying reporting at the source.
- Nikkei Asia · 22 October 2026 BOJ to hold rate at 1.25% at meeting next week
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